How To Handicap Nfl Games
College football advanced stats have come a long way in the last decade, and bettors can use them when handicapping games. This step-by-step explanation of how to calculate your bowling handicap will help you determine how many extra pins you should be getting.
The 2014 NFL season is nearing the end. We are down to four teams, which is also known as the Championship Round. Amazingly, there really haven’t been any surprises, as all four teams were among the favorites to win the Super Bowl coming into the season.
The Seattle Seahawks will host the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship in a battle between two NFC West rivals. In the AFC Championship, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots will visit Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos.
The Seahawks are installed as 3.5-point favorites over the 49ers with a total set of 39.5 points. The Broncos have been listed as 4.5-point favorites over the Patriots with a total set of 55 points. How should you go about handicapping these two games? Let’s take a look at how teams have done in the past in certain situations during championship weekend.
Is There an Advantage Playing Saturday and Getting an Extra Day’s Rest?
- 13-9 SU
- 10-12 ATS
- 13-9 O/U
It appears that if anything, it has actually been a disadvantage to get the extra day of rest. I honestly figured it would be opposite since an extra day is a big deal, especially since they get to watch their potential upcoming opponent on Sunday after winning the game Saturday. That’s essentially like having an extra day of film to study your opponent.
How Important is Home-Field Advantage?
- 16-10 SU
- 12-13-1 ATS
- 16-10 O/U
Teams with home-field advantage have been a losing bet as well. It could be because the betting public believes home-field advantage is more important than it really is in the playoffs. There’s no question it’s going to be loud if things are going good for the home team, but if a road team gets off to a good start, then that can silence a crowd and eliminate the home-field advantage.
How Have Home Teams Fared With a Line Less Than Home-Field Advantage of -3.5?
- 3-5 SU
- 2-5-1 ATS
- 5-3 O/U
How To Handicap A Football Game
Oddsmakers have been very wise when setting lines for these teams. They have realized that the home-field advantage wasn’t enough of an advantage for these teams, thus they have gone just 2-5-1 ATS for 29 percent winners. Five of the eight have lost outright. You can find the Seahawks are -3 in some places, which is certainly worth noting.
How Have Home Teams Fared With a Line More Than Home-Field Advantage of -3.5?
- 11-3 SU
- 9-5 ATS
- 7-7 O/U
Again, oddsmakers have been spot-on with these lines too. They have realized that the home team is better than it gets credit for, or that the home-field advantage is stronger than -3.5. These teams have gone 9-5 ATS for 64.3 percent winners. It’s also worth noting that the Broncos are favored by 4.5 against the Patriots.
How To Handicap Nfl Games
How Have Teams Done Revenging a Loss Against Opponent From a Different Division?
- 8-5 SU
- 9-4 ATS
- 7-6 O/U
Obviously, this only applies to the Broncos vs. Patriots game. Denver is in revenge mode after blowing a 24-0 lead to the Patriots to lose 31-34 in overtime. These teams have managed to get revenge and win outright eight out of 13 times in the Championship Game. They have also covered the spread nine out of 13 times for 69.2 percent winners.
If you can’t successfully handicap divisional games in the NFL then you aren’t going to be a winning bettor. It’s as simple as that. Football teams play each of their three divisional foes twice each year – something that happens for no other opponent. The games are particularly important because the value of a win in a divisional game is so significant in the standings. From a betting perspective the unique combination of familiarity and contempt supercharges divisional games and makes them different from most games that are played. Here’s a look at five factors for NFL bettors to keep in mind when trying to find a winner in a divisional contest:
How To Handicap Nfl Football Games
What happened in the past? – In most football games we see in the league we don’t have the benefit of a lot of recent play. If an opponent comes from the other conference then they rarely play them, and probably haven’t with the same core of players that they have now. If they are in the same conference but outside the division then a few years can still pass between games. In divisional games, though, we know that each team will be paying twice this year, and they have played twice each year at home. You don’t have to worry about where the last game was played, either, since they play both at the home stadium and on the road each year. The more often teams play each other, the easier it is to get a sense of how well they match up, what vulnerabilities they have that the opponent is capable of exploiting, and what we can expect to happen. That means that there is less guessing that is required in these situations. That can be a good thing or a bad thing depending upon your preferences and strengths. It can be easy for someone to give too much credit to past performances – especially if one team has been particularly dominant. Handicappers really need to be conscious that they learn what they can from these past matchups without overvaluing them.
How will public respond to what happened in the past? – This is perhaps where the most significant advantage can be gained from the fact that NFL teams play each other so often. The sports wagering public isn’t going to be too sophisticated in their analysis, so if there is something on the surface that stands out – like if one football team has a winning streak going against the other – then they aren’t going to look past that. If there is a good reason for you to believe that what happened in the past isn’t what is going to happen in the future because something significant has changed then you could find value that you wouldn’t be able to find if it wasn’t a divisional game. The public often overreacts, and they are particularly vulnerable to overreaction in this kind of spot. Be a smart sports handicapper and react accordingly
What’s on the line? – Whenever you look at every game you have to look at the pressure of the situation the teams are in and what that could mean to the style of play. Because of the significance and added pressure of these games you need to be particularly aware of what is on the line and what impact it could have on the players and the coaches. A loss in a divisional game could end the playoff hopes of a team – even reasonably early in the season – so teams are going to be particularly aware of what is on the line, and that can weigh on them. That means that that pressure can be a great source of an edge for insightful NFL handicappers who can successfully interpret the impact of it.
How strong is the rivalry? – The more intense a rivalry is, the more impact it can have on the teams involved, and therefore on the outcome of the games. If the rivalry is intense the teams will be particularly focused on winning, and their preparation and focus will be as good as it can be. The crowd in the home stadium will be particularly intense in these games as well, so the home field advantage will be close to as high as it can be. It’s important here, though, that you make sure that the rivalries are real ones that are significant to the football teams, and not just to the media or the fans. There are far fewer teams that will qualify when you consider this.
Is this different than a non-divisional game? – As you look at these games you need to ask one big question – is there a difference between these games and any other game? As we have seen there is certainly the potential for a significant difference. Often times, though, the difference between this game and others doesn’t matter. If the rivalry is almost non-existent, the two teams are mismatched in terms of talent, and the crowd is not particularly inspired by the pairing then it will be just like any other game. Divisional football games can matter a whole lot, but you have to be sure not to make the mistake of assuming that they always matter. Never assume as a sports bettor.