How To Make A Betting Model

3/28/2022by admin

How To Make A Betting Model Average ratng: 6,0/10 4238 reviews

How To Make A Betting Model In Microsoft
Sports Betting Model

Feb 16, 2021 The model is also up more than $8,400 on top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. Dating back to last season, it enters Week 9 of the 2020-21 NBA schedule on a stunning 83-48 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread. In principle replacing decisions by specific humans with betting markets should work – the contractor could, when facing a decision like where to put the subway line, make a betting market that pays out if the value of the ConTracked goes up upon that decision being made – but in practice this would be hugely complicated, require massive.

Betting as a process of placing money on a chosen result of a sporting event has a simple aim, which is to help you generate profit on regular basis.

October 14 The Cowboys still have the seventh-best odds to make the NFC playoffs after losing star QB Dak Prescott for the season October 7 A Week 4 loss to the Eagles has resulted in the 49ers odds to make the playoffs fading from -210 to +110, which is a drop from fifth to eighth-best in the NFC. Make sure you’ve got your betting basics and wagering fundamentals knowledge solid; Learn about the importance of ratings and prices and get inspired by the models created by our Data Scientists; Take a look at our Automated Betting Station and consider how you could use our API in building and automating your model.

Consistent betting wins are difficult to achieve, but not impossible. This is where a betting model kicks in as a system that is intended to help you identify elements with which you can predetermine if a certain outcome is profitable or not.

What’s a Betting Model and how to Build It?

A Betting Model is a mathematical system which determines the probability for all outcomes in a particular match, without a biased look at the teams involved. A betting model will assess a team’s ability to win rather more accurately and help you get an extra edge on bookmakers.

Betting Models are not easy to build and they often require some understanding of mathematics and programming. In order to fully understand them, you need to have insights in quantitative risk assessment methods such as Actuarial Control Cycle, which is used by big insurance companies around the globe.

Similar to basic elements of the risk assessment method, a betting model will contain a couple of different features. In order to have a successful betting method built you need to:

Define the problem
Build the solution
Monitor results
Be Professional
Be Aware of External Forces

Eight-Step Subdivision

The aforementioned five elements that help you form your betting model are divided into the total of eight steps you need to take in order to make sure you have a working betting model.

Aim of the betting model

The most common mistake a punter can make is to adopt a generic aim of the betting model, as it can often lead to players getting stuck under the numbers and getting their vision blurred, losing focus of their more specific goals.

Narrow focus is required and a specific aim of the betting model will only help you be more successful with other steps of the way.

Select the metric

Same step is applied in the Actuarial Control Cycle when you need to make your investigation fit in a quantifiable metric.

Collecting data

This step is self-explanatory as each model depends on the collected data you will subsequently put into your algorithms to analyses. You can of course do data collecting yourself, but there are too many of the services which are providing data solutions that you can easily be saved of all the trouble.

Form of the Model

Interchangeable with step three, format of the model is where the math come into play. One basic model is the one that looks at the past three matches, a simple but effective way to give you valuable insight before you go all complicated.

Assumptions

Self-questioning is imperative and if you don’t make assumptions of your model and try to foresee the possible problems and issues, they will hit you hard and even before you know it.

Build the working model

This step is about the actual building process through tools and calculators which are provided through Excel, Java, VBA and others.

Test the model

The efficiency of a model needs to be put to a test so that you will be able to see if any of the previous steps should be reconsidered or edited.

Monitor the results

Once you have found an adequate model which works, it needs to be constantly monitored and maintained through time so that you can get valuable information of its success rate and efficiency.

Ever wondered how you are actually doing in sports betting?

Just like tracking your finances can be an eye opening experience (I spent how much at restaurants last month?!), tracking your bets can shed some light on your performance.

Download the free sports bet tracking spreadsheet below to get started (available for both Excel and Google Sheets):

Bet Tracker Spreadsheet: Instant Insights

If you want to measure your performance and see where you are succeeding and failing, you need to track it.

With this free tool, you can see your performance broken down by various dimensions.

Have a great ROI on betting NBA 2nd halves? Getting solid closing line value on NFL point spreads? This spreadsheet allows you to answer questions like this and more.

How to use the spreadsheet

While the spreadsheet is pretty straightforward, I’d like to walk you through how it works.

How to track sports bets

Everything lives in the “Bet Log” tab. This is the only place information is manually entered. Once the data is entered there, all other tabs will automatically populate.

In the “Bet Log” tab, blue columns are required while red columns are optional. The more information you input, the more useful the spreadsheet will be.

Entering things like the closing line, while slightly annoying, will also be the most important to your success.

How to analyze performance

Each tab will have different graphs and tables that show your performance. The beauty of this is that you can filter the data by any dimension you like.

Any yellow cell is an “input” cell that can be changed. All of these are dropdowns that are pre-populated based on the information you enter in the Bet Log.

How to add more leagues and teams

To add new leagues and teams, you will do so in the “REF” tab. This tab holds all of the lookup information for the dropdowns throughout the spreadsheet.

Again, the cells available to modify are in yellow. You can add the following dimensions:

Leagues (ex: WNBA)
Teams (ex: Chicago Sky)
Tags (ex: 2nd half)

Bet Tracker Spreadsheet Metrics

Deciding what to track is important in determining how you measure success. The spreadsheet tracks the following key metrics:

Closing Line Value

Closing line value (CLV) is a measure of how much better or worse the odds you bet at were compared to where they closed.

If you believe the markets you are betting into are efficient (NFL point spreads, MLB moneylines, etc.), then CLV is a great predictor of long term success.

All you need to do is input the odds you placed your bet at as well as where the odds closed. Preferably you use a market making sportsbook like Pinnacle to decide what the “true” closing line was.

Profit

Profit is about as simple as it gets. Are you making or losing money?

While this is the “bottom line”, surprisingly it isn’t always predictive of long term success. Still, you will obviously want to see how much money you have made or lost.

ROI

This is what most people tend to look at. It is a measure of how profitable you are relative to how much you are risking.

While at the end of the day, the money in your pocket is what matters, this metric focuses more on results rather than process and is a measure of efficiency.

ROI isn’t as predictive of long term winning as CLV, but is useful to track to see where you stand.

Risk

This one is simple, yet will likely give you insights into where you are putting your money.

If you have a model, does it consistently value the Dallas Cowboys differently than the market? Thus making many of your bets on the Cowboys? Analyzing your risk by league/team/bet type can give you these types of answers.

Bankroll

Bankroll will track our running total of how much money you have in your accounts across all sportsbooks. You can also see this trended over time to help you see any changes in your betting strategy and how that has affected your bankroll.

It is very useful to see, at a glance, where your money lies. Is 95% of our bankroll at FanDuel? Maybe you should shift some to DraftKings.

Bet Tracker Spreadsheet Dimensions

Having these metrics available is important, but insights really come from slicing the data by different dimensions.

League/Team

Tracking your performance by league or team can give you clues into where your strengths or weaknesses are.

Do you watch every second of every New York Knicks game? Think you have an edge on Knicks games? You can find out using the spreadsheet.

Same goes for leagues. Do you follow NFL closely but use strictly numbers for NCAA Basketball? Compare the performance of the two and see what’s working.

Bet Type

Looking at performance by bet type can also shed some light on your process, especially if it is model driven.

Track your performance by the following bet types:

Spread
Moneyline
Total
Prop
Future

You can also use the “Tag” field to designate special types of bets. For example, if you want to see your performance on moneylines for NBA 2nd halves, you would put “2H” (or something similar) in the Tag field and “moneyline” in the bet type field.

Date

A common way to analyze performance is to look at metrics trended over time.

Look at any of the metric/dimension combinations above trended over any time period you’d like.

Want to see your performance over the last 14 days? Or how about the last 12 weeks? Both are possible here.

Google Sheets Sports Betting Tracker

The sports betting tracker is also available on Google Sheets. While the features are the same as the Excel file, Google Sheets has some notable benefits: